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Cyberwar

How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President: What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Political Science / Political Process / Campaigns & Elections

"Imagine a strategy memo forecasting cyberattacks by Russian hackers, trolls, and bots designed to roil social discontent and damage the electoral prospects of a major party US presidential nominee, or, if she winds up winning, to sabotage her ability to govern by seeding allegations of Democratic voter fraud. Guaranteed payoff. No fingerprints. No keystroke record. No contrails in the cloud. To ensure that Americans would believe that disparaging messages about her were made in the US, use bitcoin to buy space and set up virtual private networks (VPNs) on American servers. Distribute hacked content stolen from the accounts of her staff and associates through an intermediary, WikiLeaks. Use identity theft, stolen Social Security numbers, and appropriated IDs to circumvent Facebook and PayPal's demand for actual names, birth dates, and addresses. On platforms such as Instagram and Twitter, register under assumed names. Diffuse and amplify your attack and advocacy through posts on Facebook, tweets and retweets on Twitter, videos on YouTube, reporting and commentary on RT, blogging on Tumblr, news sharing on Reddit, and viral memes and jokes on 9GAG. Add to the mix a video game called Hilltendo in which a missile-straddling Clinton figure vaporizes classified emails sought by the FBI. Employ "online agitators" and bots to upvote posts from imposter websites such as BlackMattersUS.com to the top of such subreddits as r/The_Donald and r/HillaryForPrison. Drive content to trend. To maximize the impact of your handiwork, use data analytics and search-engine maximization tools built into the social media platforms. To test and fuel doubts about the security of US voter information, hack the election systems of states. And, throughout the primary and general election season, insinuate the notion that if Hillary Clinton were to win, she would have done so by rigging the election, an outcome that would repay her assaults on the legitimacy of their leader's presidency with doubts about her own. Were she instead to lose, she would no longer be a thistle in the toned torso of the hackers and trolls' boss's likely boss. Every result but one produces desirable results for the Kremlin. Outcome one: Clinton is off the international stage. Outcome two: she wins but can't govern effectively. Outcome three: the former Secretary of State is elected and the country simply moves on, but the sabotage nonetheless has magnified cultural tensions and functioned as a pilot from which to birth later success - perhaps when she runs for a second term. The only eventuality that damages the Russian cybersoldiers and their commander-in-chief is the fourth in which, in real time, the cyberattackers are unmasked by a vigilant intelligence community, condemned by those in both major political parties and around the world, characterized by the media as spies and saboteurs, the Russian messaging is blocked or labeled as Russian propaganda, and, when included in media accounts, the stolen content is relentlessly tied to its Russian origins and sources. None of that happened. Instead, to the surprise of the Russian masterminds as well as both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, he won the Electoral College and with it a four-year claim on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Although countrywide she bested him by almost 2.9 million votes, he unexpectedly captured an Electoral College majority by running the table. By the end of the evening of November 8, Florida as well as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were in his column. The ways in which Russian hacking and social media messaging altered the content of the electoral dialogue and contributed to Donald Trump's victory are the subjects of this book. To begin my exploration, this overview chapter will highlight key findings of the US intelligence community; preview my focus on the hackers and trolls and the synergies between them; justify casting the Russian machinations as acts of cyberwar; outline ways in which susceptibilities in our system of government and media structures magnified their effects; and note five presuppositions that will shape my analysis of the Russian trolls' work and one that will guide my study of the effects of the hackers."--
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