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Are Poverty Reduction and Other Twenty-first Century Social Goals Attainable?

Lionel Demery , Michael Walton

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Reducing poverty and improving social conditions in the developing world is central to the World Bank's mission. But just how difficult is this task, and how attainable are the goals that have been set? In this paper, the authors seek answers to these questions. Empirically assessing two important goals-halving the incidence of poverty and reducing child mortality by two-thirds (both by 2015), they find that the evidence is mixed. Some countries appear likely to achieve the poverty goal, while others do not. But the key message is that achieving these goals in the twenty-first century depends on the actions governments take today. Improvements in economic policy and in political practice are shown to bring poverty reduction within reach of most countries. The paper shows that the goals that have been set are not out of reach. But it warns that greater effort is needed if by 2015 the world is to be better place for those 1.3 billion currently subsisting in extreme poverty, as well as the millions born into such poverty each year.
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